Forecast Challenge
A verifiable forecasting record
Forecasts are timestamped, locked, and scored against observations. Tornateo is the record, not the social network.
How it works
- Build the forecastPick a location, a valid period and the categories you want to commit to, then set a confidence value. A summary and discussion are optional.
- Publish and lockSubmission time, valid period and every value are recorded. Revisions are timestamped, and the forecast becomes immutable at the verification cutoff.
- Share anywhereEach forecast gets a stable public link with social previews and a shareable card.
- Automatic verificationAfter the valid period ends, observed data is retrieved and each metric scored with methodology appropriate to it — MAE for temperature, Brier for probabilities, categorical statistics for occurrence.
- Permanent recordVerified results feed your profile and the leaderboards, with sample size shown beside every ranking.
What keeps the leaderboard defensible
- Forecasts must be issued at least 6.0 h before the valid period begins, and before the event begins for severe weather.
- Submitted forecasts cannot be deleted; hiding one keeps its verified result on record.
- Every creation, revision, verification and invalidation is written to an audit trail.
- Duplicate forecasts for the same location, category and window are rejected.
- Observed data is never taken from model forecasts, and its source is always shown.